Working Papers

Working papers and Policy Notes

64. "Disaster and Political Trust: A Natural Experiment from the 2017 Mexico City Earthquake" (w/M.Frost, S.Kim, P.Zamora, and L. Zechmeister). Working Paper 1192 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2024

63. "The Political Economy of Redistribution and (in)Efficiency in Latin America and the Caribbean" (w/M. Guizzo and M. Tommasi). Working Paper 1527 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2023. 

62. "Reducing Misinformation: The Role of Confirmation Frames in Fact-Checking Interventions" (w/N. Aruguete, F. Batista, M. Guizzo, E. Calvo, T. Ventura). Working Paper 1363 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2023. 

61. "Willing but Unable to Pay?: The Role of Gender in Tax Compliance" (w/A.Lopez-L). Working Paper 1330 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2023.

60. "Increasing the Use of Telemedicine: A Field Experiment" (w/M.P.Gonzalez). Working Paper 1471 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2023.

Research Insights: "How Can the Full Potential of Telemedicine Be Unlocked?"

59. "Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety" (w/F. Cafferata and P. Dominguez). Working Paper 1225 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2023.

58. "Willingness to pay for crime reduction: evidence from six countries in the Americas" (w/P. Dominguez). Working Paper 1367 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2022.

57. "The Effect of a Crisis on Trust and Willingness to Reform: Evidence from Survey Panels in Argentina and Uruguay" (w/A.Bonvecchi, E.Calvo, and S.Otálvaro). Working Paper 1306. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2022.

Research Insights: "Can a Crisis Reduce Trust in the President to the Point that Citizens Do Not Accept Fiscal Reforms or Economic Sacrifices Intended to Overcome It?"

56. "Does Citizen Participation in Budget Allocation Pay? A Survey Experiment on Political Trust and Participatory Governance" (w/M.Ardanaz and S.Otálvaro). Working Paper 1311. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2022.

55. "Do Civil Servants Respond to Behavioral Interventions? A Field Experiment" (w/P.Zamora). Working Paper 1218. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

Research Insights: "Do Civil Servants Respond to Behavioral Interventions?"

54. "Turn Off the Faucet: Solving Excess Water Consumption with Individual Meters" (w/P.Carrillo and I. Contreras). Working Paper 1152. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

Research Insights: "Can Water Use Be Reduced through Policies that Promote Individual Metering of Water Consumption?"

53. "How Can We Improve Air Pollution?: Try Increasing Trust First" (w/F. Cafferata and B. Hoffmann). Working Paper 1208. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

Research Insights: "What Role Does Trust in Government Play in Support for Public Policies to Improve Air Pollution?"

52. "Trustful Voters, Trustworthy Politicians: A Survey Experiment on the Influence of Social Media in Politics" (w/N. Aruguete, E. Calvo, T. Ventura). Working Paper 1169. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

51. "On the Demand for Telemedicine: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic" (w/M. Busso and M.P. González). Working Paper 1202. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

Research Insights: "Did Demand for Telemedicine Grow During the COVID-19 Pandemic?"    

50. "Do You Have COVID-19? How to Increase the Use of Diagnostic and Contact-Tracing Apps" (w/D. Martínez, A.M. Rojas M., C. Parilli, and A. Simpser).  Working Paper 1213. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

Research Insights: "Indirect Strategies Might Be a Better Way to Address Data Privacy Issues"   

49. "Let's (Not) Get Together! The Role of Social Norms in Social Distancing during COVID-19" (w/D. Martínez, C. Parilli, and A. Simpser).  Working Paper 1168. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2021.

Research Insights: "Unintended Byproducts of News Coverage about Noncompliance: A Social Norms Exploration"

48. "How Much Do We Trust Others in LAC? The Role of Inequality and Perceptions" (w/ J.Valle L.) Technical Note 1999. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

Research Insights: "How Much Do We Trust Others in Latin America and the Caribbean? The Role of Inequality and Perceptions"    

47. "Tempering the Taste for Vengeance: Information about Prisoners and Policy Choices in Chile" (w/F.Cafferata and D.Gingerich). Working Paper 1128. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

46. "The Elusive Quest for Growth in Latin American and the Caribbean: The Role of Trust" (w/ J.Valle L.) Policy Brief No. 341. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

45. "Voter Preferences, Electoral Promises, and the Composition of Public Spending" (w/P. Keefer and R.Vlaicu). Working Paper 1123. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

Research Insights: "Can Voter Preferences Explain Why Governments Underinvest in Public Goods?"

44. "Reforzar la comunicación y la participación de la comunidad apoyándose en las ciencias conductuales" (w/D. Martinez and AM. Rojas Mendez). In Del confinamiento a la reapertura: Consideraciones estratégicas para el reinicio de las actividades en América Latina y el Caribe en el marco de la COVID-19. Pages 45-50. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

43. "Behavioral Economics Can Help Fight Coronavirus" (w/D. Martinez and AM. Rojas Mendez). Policy Brief No. 334. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

En español: "La economía del comportamiento puede ayudar a combatir el coronavirus" (w/D. Martinez and AM. Rojas Mendez). Policy Brief No. 334. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

Em protuguês: "A economia do comportamento pode ajudar a combater o coronavírus" Policy Brief No. 334. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

Related opinion piece: "In the Fight Against the Coronavirus, Behavioral Economics is a Potent Weapon" Ideas Matter. March 2020 

42. "Behavioral Insights for Foresighted Public Finance" (w/AM. Rojas Mendez and N. Rapoport).  Policy Brief 324. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

En español: "Las ciencias del comportamiento para impulsar las finanzas públicas" (w/AM. Rojas Mendez and N. Rapoport).  Resumen de Políticas No. 324. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2020.

41. "Who's Calling? The Effect of Phone Calls and Personal Interaction on Tax Compliance" (w/M. Mogollón and D. Ortega). Working Paper No. 1084. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2019.

Research Insights: "Calling Delinquent Taxpayers Turns Out to Be a Good Tactic to Collect Debts"

Related opinion piece: "Don’t Forget to Call: How Personal Interaction Boosts Tax Payments"  Ideas Matter. April 2021 

40. "Social Trust and Electoral Populism: Explaining the Quality of Government" (w/P. Keefer and R.Vlaicu). Working Paper No. 1052. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2019.

Research Insights: "Can Social Trust Explain the Quality of Government?"

39. "Fiscal consolidations and electoral outcomes in emerging economies: does the policy mix matter? Macro and micro level evidence from Latin America" (w/M. Ardanaz and M. Hallerberg). Working Paper No. 1002. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2019.

Research Insights: "When Fiscal Adjustments Must Be Made, Do Voters Care Which Policy Is Used?"

Related opinion piece: "When Tax Hikes Doom Governments at the Polls" Ideas Matter. September 2019 

38. "Imperfect Attention in Public Policy: A Field Experiment during a Tax Amnesty in Argentina" (w/E. Castro). Discussion Paper 665. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2019.

Research Insights: "Do Tax Amnesties Really Work?"

Related opinion piece: "The Pros and Cons of Simplified Tax Notices and Amnesties" Ideas Matter. June 2019 

37. "Transparency and Trust in Government: Evidence from a Survey Experiment" (w/M. Alessandro, Bruno Cardinale L, and J. Torrealday). Working Paper No. 962. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2019.

Research Insights: "How Can Governments Build Trust?" 

Related opinion piece: "Can Government Commitments Win Back Citizens’ Trust in Latin America?" Ideas Matter. March 2019 

 Relevant citation: "The Case for Government Investment in Analytics" Harvard Kennedy School. September 2019

36. "A Heavy Hand or a Helping Hand? Information Provision and Citizen Preferences for Anti-Crime Policies" (w/D. Gingerich). Working Paper No. 927. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2018.

Research Insight: "Does the Framing of Information on Crime Rates Affect Citizens' Preferences for Anti-Crime Policies?"

Related opinion piece: "When Anti-Crime Strategies Reflect Ignorance Rather than Knowledge" Ideas Matter. February 2019 

35. "Compliance Spillovers Across Taxes: The Role of Penalties and Detection" (w/A. López-Luzuriaga).  Working Paper No. 926. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2018. 

Research Insights: "Can Salient Penalties and Enforcement on Tax Bills Increase Compliance Across Taxes?"

Related opinion piece: "Behavioral Interventions on One Tax Can Boost Compliance Across the Board" Ideas Matter. January 2019 

34. "Civic Engagement in the Americas" (w/R. Vlaicu).  Working Paper No. 883. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2018. 

Research Insights: "Are Young Latin American Voters Politically Engaged?"

Related opinion pieces: "How the Right to Vote Sparks Political Interest." Ideas Matter. April 2018

33. "Do Rewards Work? Evidence from the Randomization of Public Works" (w/P. Carrillo and E. Castro).  Working Paper No. 794. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2017. 

Research Insights: "Can Rewards Improve Tax Compliance?"

Related dissemination material

    Video #1: Can rewards change behavior?  

    Video #2: Premios para el pago de impuestos

 Related opinion pieces: "Rewards Help Tax Payments Become 'Contagious'." Ideas Matter. June 2017

"Premios para que pagar impuestos se vuelva “contagioso”." Ideas que cuentan. Junio 2017

"Economía del comportamiento: ¿Pueden los premios incentivar el pago del impuesto sobre la propiedad?" Recaudando Bienestar. May 2017

Related Press Articles:

Revista Apertura, AR. Una experiencia en Santa Fe demostró que los premios estimulan el pago de impuestos. Septiembre 2017

32. "Don’t Blame the Messenger: A Field Experiment on Delivery Methods for Increasing Tax Compliance" (w/ D. Ortega). Working Paper No. 627. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2015. 

    Reprinted as Working Paper 2015/09. CAF Development Bank of Latin America. November 2015.     

Research Insights: "How to Best Remind Taxpayers of Their Obligations?"

Related dissemination material

    Video #1:  Is it relevant the method governments use to communicate with its citizens?

Related opinion pieces: "Visitas domiciliarias frenan la evasión: BID" El Universal. January 2015.

    "Want People to Pay Their Taxes? Try a Visit" Ideas Matter. December 2015.

    Cited by the IRS's Tax Advocate Service website

31. "Explaining Changes in Tax Burdens in Latin America: Do Politics Trump Economics?" (w/ M. Hallerberg).  Working Paper No. 613 Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2015.

Research Insights: "Does Politics Trump the Ability of Having Successful Tax Reforms?"

Related Press Articles:

El Contribuyente: "Elecciones postergan las políticas fiscales" 26 October 2015.

Dinero: "¿Cuál es el impacto de las elecciones en el aumento de los impuestos?" 23 October 2015

30. "El diablo está en los detalles. Algunas lecciones para el diseño de políticas públicas" (w/ L. Castro). Documento de Políticas No. 232. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014.

Reprinted as Documento de Trabajo 125. CIPPEC, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Related Press Articles:

Mercado: "70% no sabe calcular con la factura de gas" 17 November 2014.

La Nación: "No hay conciencia de las restricciones que va a imponer la situación fiscal desde 2015" 7 December 2014.

29. "The Devil is in the Details. Policy Design Lessons from Field Experiments in the Pampas" (w/ L. Castro). Policy Brief No. 232. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014.

28. "State Capacity and the Quality of Policies. Revisiting the Relationship Between Openness and the Size of the Government" (w/ M. Franco Chuaire, and M. Tommasi).  Working Paper No. 532. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014.

Research Insights: "What Is the Role of State Capacity in Dealing with Macroeconomic Volatility?"

27. "La política de las políticas públicas: Re-examinando la calidad de las políticas públicas y las capacidades del Estado en América Latina y el Caribe" (w/.M. Franco Chuaire).  Documento de Políticas No. 220. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014.

26. "The Politics of Policies: Revisiting the Quality of Public Policies and Government Capabilities in Latin America and the Caribbean" (w/.M. Franco Chuaire).  Policy Brief No. 220. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014. 

25. "Capacidades gubernamentales en América Latina: Por qué son tan importantes, qué se sabe sobre ellas y cuáles son los pasos a seguir" (w/.M Tommasi). Resumen de Políticas No. 210. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014.

24. "Government Capabilities in Latin America: Why They Are So Important, What We Know about Them, and What to Do Next" (w/.M Tommasi). Policy Brief No. 210. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2014.

Related opinion pieces:

"12 recommendations on government reform" Development That Works. January 2014 (here in spanish) 

"Refocusing the Development Agenda in Latin America: How to Build Government Capabilities" The Brookings Institution. May 2014

23. "Tax Compliance and Enforcement in the Pampas: Evidence from a Field Experiment" (w/L. Castro).  Working Paper No. 472. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2013.

Research Insights: "How Do Messages Affect Taxpayers’ Behavior?"

    Video summarizing the results of the experiment (in Spanish with subtitles)

    Related opinion pieces:

       "Experimentos para Reducir la Evasión Tributaria" Vox-LACEA. January 2014.

       "Reducing Tax Evasion in Developing Countries" Public Financial Management Blog, IMF. Jan.14

       "Who cares if you don’t pay your taxes?"Development That Works. December 2013

    Related Press Articles:

El País, Uruguay: "Ojos que no ven, billetera que no siente" 30 October 2015

La Nación, Argentina: "El efecto estigma: ojos que no ven, billetera que no siente" by S. Campanario. 20 September 2015  

La Política Online: "Con un novedoso sistema, varios municipios mejoraron su recaudación" 17 January 2014.

La Nación, Argentina: "Todos a "nudgear": la psicología de las políticas públicas" by S. Campanario. 12 May 2013 

22. "A Tale of Two Latin American Congresses. Towards a Comparative Study of Institutionalization and Effectiveness." (w/V. Palanza and M. Tommasi). Working Paper No. 111, Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés. 2013.

21. "Tax Reforms in Latin America in an Era of Democracy" (w/ D. Focanti and M. Hallerberg). Working Paper No. 457. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2013.

Related Press Articles:

La Nación: "Monotributistas de ideas: cómo influyen los impuestos a la hora de inspirarse" by Sonia Jalfin. 21 June 2014 

20. "The Economic Effects of Constitutions: Do Budget Institutions Make Forms of Government More Alike?" (w/M. Ardanaz).  Working Paper No. 427. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2013.

19. "Are We All Playing the Same Game? The Economic Effects of Constitutions Depend on the Degree of Institutionalization" (w/G. Caruso and M. Tommasi). Working Paper No. 237. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2013.

Research Insights: "Do the Economic Effects of Constitutions Depend on the Degree of Institutionalization?"

18. "On the Institutionalization of Congress(es) in Latin America and Beyond" (w/V. Palanza and M. Tommasi). Working Paper No. 363. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2012.

Research Insights: "What Determines the Degree of Institutionalization of a Legislature?"

17. "Budgeting for results in Latin America: Conditions for its deployment and development" (w/ G. Filc). Policy Brief No. 160. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2012. 

16. “Institucionalización de las instituciones políticas y su impacto sobre las políticas públicas” (w/M. Tommasi). Working Paper No. 287. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2012.  

15. "The Presidency and the Executive Branch in Latin America: What We Know and What We Need to Know” (w/A. Bonvecchi). Working Paper No. 283. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American. 2011. Development Bank. 

14. “Why Don’t We Tax the Rich? Inequality, Legislative Malapportionment, and Personal Income Taxation around the World” (w/M. Ardanaz). Working Paper No. 282 . Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2011.

Related Press Articles:

CIPER: "Por qué los Larraínes prosperan y dirigen… y los González mucho menos" by Juan Andrés Guzman

CIPER: "...estrategias de la elite chilena para evitar alzas de impuestos" by Juan Andrés Guzmán 

Mendoza Online: "Cómo la elite chilena evitó alzas de impuestos"  

El País: "Las dictaduras sentaron las bases de sistemas tributarios injustos" by Alejandro Rebossio

Guyana Times: "IDB study sheds light on lower level of personal income taxes"

The Hindu: "Low Tax Morale" by D. Murali

UPI: "Los Parlamentos defienden a los sectores más ricos revela informe del BID"

Mis Finanzas en Linea: "Democracias no mejoran desigualdad" by Maria Morales

IProfesional.com: "¿Cuál es la razón por la que los ricos del mundo no pagan más impuestos?"

La Red 21: "Informe del BID: parlamentos dominados por ricos impiden ponerles impuestos adecuados"

Business News Américas: "Representación política desigual lleva a menor nivel de impuestos sobre renta personal, según BID"

13. “Economic Crisis and Fiscal Reforms in Latin America.” (w/ M. Hallerberg). Working Paper No. 235. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2011. 

12. “Does Energy Consumption Respond to Price Shocks? Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design"  (w/P. Bastos, L. Castro, and J. Cristia). Working Paper No. 234. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2011

Updated version published as Policy Research Working Paper 6785. World Bank. February 2014. 

Research Insights: "Does Energy Consumption Respond to Price Shocks?"    

Related Press Articles:

Mercado: "70% no sabe calcular con la factura de gas" 17 November 2014.

11. “The Politics of Financial Development: The Role of Interest Groups and Government Capabilities” (w/O. Becerra and E. Cavallo). Working Paper No. 207. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2010.

Research Insights: "How to Increase Credit Penetration in Latin America and the Caribbean?: Improve Government Capacity and Reduce the Role of Interest Groups"

10. “Is Latin America on the Right Track? An Analysis of Medium-Term Frameworks and the Budget Process”  (w/G. Filc). Working Paper No.160. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2010.

9. “Veto Players and Policy Trade-Offs: An Intertemporal Approach to Study the Effects of Political Institutions on Policy” (w/E. Stein and M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 159. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2010. 

8. “Political Institutions, Policymaking, and Economic Policy in Latin America” (w/M. Ardanaz and M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 158. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2010.

7. “Political Institutions and Street Protests in Latin America” (w/F. Machado and M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 110. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2009.

6. “The Making of Policy: Institutionalized or Not?” (w/M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 108. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2009.

Reviewed by José Danilo Gónzalez, Política Pública Hoy, 6(1), July, 2010.

5. “Political Institutions, Intertemporal Cooperation, and the Quality of Policies” (w/E. Stein and M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 676. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2009.

4. “Political Institutions, State Capabilities and Public Policy: International Evidence” (w/E. Stein and M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 661. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2008. 

3. “Veto Players, Intertemporal Interactions and Policy Adaptability: How Do Political Institutions Work?” (w/E. Stein and M. Tommasi). Working paper No.645. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2008. 

2. “The Political Economy of Productivity: Actors, Arenas, and Policies. A Framework of Analysis” (w/V. Murillo and M. Tommasi). Working paper No. 640. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2008. 

1. “The Institutional Determinants of Political Transactions.” Working paper No. 580. Washington, DC, United States: Inter-American Development Bank. 2007.

GMU Working Papers

"The Size and Composition of Government Spending in Multi-Party Systems" (w/W. M. Crain). Working paper 02-23. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University. 2002. 

"Political Institutions and Regulation: An Inquiry on the Impact of Electoral Systems on the Regulation of Entry". Fairfax, VA: George Mason University. 2002. Link

IDB Working papers reprinted elsewhere

"The economic effects of Constitutions: Do budget institutions make forms of government more alike?" (w/M. Ardanaz). International Journal of Public Budget 85, July/August. 2014

“Why Don’t We Tax the Rich? Inequality, Legislative Malapportionment, and Personal Income Taxation Around the World” (w/M. Ardanaz). International Journal of Public Budget 78, March/April. 2012

“Economic Crisis and Fiscal Reforms in Latin America” (w/M. Hallerberg). International Journal of Public Budget 76: 71-104. 2011.

“Los Marcos de Mediano Plazo y el Proceso Presupuestario en America Latina” (w/G. Filc). Trimestre Fiscal 90, September, pp. 187-244. 2009.

“Budget Institutions and Fiscal Outcomes” (w/G. Filc). International Journal of Public Budget 59, Nov-Dec, pp. 81-138. 2005.